20.10.12

I really wish this was the year there was the BCS 4 team playoff

BCS apologists - this year will be your last chance to defend the awful one-game playoff system in college football. I think you're going to have to defend against a lot. I think the BCS system picked the two best teams last year in LSU and Alabama, but certainly not the best game (which would have involved Oklahoma State). This year it may be even tougher to pick the best.

Alabama is undefeated now, nearly unanimous #1. Unless they lose to undefeated Florida, a loss will take the SEC out of the top spot. The brutal game left is at Baton Rouge with LSU. LSU is flukey this year but winning there is no easy task. Two other ranked teams (surprising Mississippi State and conference newcomer Texas A&M visit Bama). Then there's the SEC title game (likely Florida, but Georgia or South Carolina could still fall in). Florida is playing above their talent which is tough week-to-week in the SEC. I see Alabama losing to LSU. Alabama is the better team, but the home field advantage will tip this close battle. There's also the matter of the rivalry game (as we'll see later, there's some huge ones this year) - Auburn. Even with one loss (especially if they beat LSU and with the SEC title) they are probably in the title game. If they lose to LSU, they may not be in the SEC title game, which would virtually eliminate them. Also from the SEC, Florida has Georgia next week, Florida State out of league (that's actually a tough match up for them this year) and the SEC title game if they win out. If the SEC winner is undefeated, we all agree - they are playing in the title game. Don't forget that Mississippi State is undefeated - but that road is as impossible as it gets (At Alabama, Texas A/M, At LSU in consecutive weeks, plus a good Ole Miss team on the road, then the SEC title game).

Lets go out West where speed punishes then kills. Oregon is #3 in the polls and they can't afford to take a week off. Colorado is the only game they have left where they can have a bad day and lose. At USC (they will have a huge stake in the final outcome this year and if teams lose, they could still be in the hunt if they win the Pac 12), a solid Cal team and Stanford. Then there's the Civil War. Oregon State is currently undefeated but they have quite possibly the most easy and bizarre schedule of any team in the Pac 12 (they close with Nichols State in December AFTER the rivalry game with Oregon - I'd expect to see the Beavers lose at Washington or at Stanford). Oregon State is dangerous in this match up every year, despite Oregon usually being much more talented. After that, Oregon has to play USC again (or another solid team in the conference title game). I don't think they can beat USC twice (USC is quietly better every time they take the field). If Oregon losses the regular season game at the Colosseum and comes back to win the conference title game, they are the first one-loss team in (assuming no other two contending teams go undefeated).

Let's talk USC. They don't have any cookies left at all. Their non-conference game is Notre Dame. I love Brian Kelly but I also know USC still has double the talent of Notre Dame. Remember that year Notre Dame grew the grass an inch higher and played USC during their winning streak and they almost beat them? The game is in LA this year, so there will be no such grass. If Notre Dame can get by one-loss Oklahoma (which could also find their way into the title game if they won out and things broke right), Wake Forest is the only other team they play that would even have a chance of beating them. Notre Dame deserves to be in the title game if they win out and only one of Alabama, Florida and Oregon goes undefeated. Beating OU and USC on the road and either of those teams winning their conference title games makes Notre Dame close to a  lock. I don't think they beat either team (but they should get a BCS bowl berth with Ohio State out of play for an at-large, even if they lose both games).

The Big 12 is the defenseless conference, although Kansas State's game against West Virginia (keeping them out of the end zone on offense until the fourth quarter) turned some heads. I would like to see Collin Klein against an SEC defense. I think they could complete. I'd also like their defense in that game. Other than Oregon, I think they would have the best chance of knocking off an SEC team. One could argue that Kansas State's win at Oklahoma was the best win any team has had this year (as far as the title picture) - although there are games coming up that will eclipse this. Their road may be the toughest. Texas Tech (one loss, probably done title-picture wise after narrowly avoiding the loss to TCU) and OK State visit the Wildcats. At TCU, At Baylor and Texas (who they usually give a lot of trouble as an underdog - but will the same thing happen as a favorite). There's no Big 12 title game anymore, which may be a saving grace. If Oklahoma and Kansas State both finish with one loss, K-State wins the conference due to head-to-head, but we all know the BCS always picks the team that loses their game first - the B.S. of the system. Oklahoma will be ranked higher if K-State loses a game.

Ironically there likely will be 2 undefeated teams totally out of play. Ohio State has a fairly easy schedule left other than Michigan at home. Michigan snapped a long Ohio State winning streak last year at the Big House. Urban Meyer will not let his team lose this year in Columbus. Will not. Michigan probably has the better team at the non-skill positions but you can bet the Buckeyes will have scheme to stop Denard Robinson. Then Michigan will win their division and probably the Big Ten. The Big Ten is brutally bad this year. Usually they are right there with the Pac 10-11-12 (whatever they call themselves now) and Big 12, a notch below the SEC. Not this year. This year they aren't that much better than the MAC (which is better than the Big East while the Big East is arguably better overall (and head-to-head) than the ACC). Nonetheless, undefeated Ohio State can't play for the title due to probation. Better get the Buckeyes this year, Big 10, once Urban Meyer has his own players it's over.

Speaking of the Big East, one of those teams likely will go undefeated. Cincinnati (one loss, to.. yikes Toledo?), Rutgers and Louisville are unbeaten in the league with the former two undefeated overall. I doubt they will split 3 ways, despite the most inferior team, Cincinnati's ability to win games late. I say Rutgers wins out - Louisville isn't a finisher. Rutgers undefeated in the Big East with their signature wins over Louisville and usually-strong-this-year-tire-fire Arkansas isn't playing in the title game, nor should they. Probably not even top 4 this year unless things got completely wild at the end.

Prediction time: Alabama loses at LSU, but still gets to the SEC title game against Florida and Alabama wins. Oregon losses to USC in the regular season, but Oregon wins the conference. Notre Dame drops both games to Oklahoma and USC. Kansas State drops one of their remaining conference games, wins the conference but Oklahoma gets the at-large and is ranked higher.

Outcome of this - Kansas State beats the tar out of Florida State (didn't mention them even with one loss, just because the ACC is worse than the Big East even this year). Rutgers earns the Big East a little respect with a win in a bowl game over Notre Dame. Florida and Oklahoma duke it out in a classic. USC destroys Michigan in the Rose Bowl. Alabama plays Oregon in the title game. It's hard to pick against the SEC in the title game. And I'm not doing it this year. The crown stays down south until we get our four-team playoff... and probably after that a bit too.

19.10.12

My 2012 Season



When I was a child, maybe every other year or so, my mother would get us tickets on a bus trip to Yankee Stadium. Trips to see that late 1980s Yankees team, the definition of mediocrity, are one of my favorite memories from youth. We sat way up near the top in the outfield, got to the game in time for batting practice and stayed until the end. One time I crept down for batting practice and got a "hey kid" from Steve Sax. Was the highlight of my baseball youth until the late former Orioles bullpen coach Elrod Hendricks told me to have an aneurism at Fenway Park my junior year in high school.

Two decades later, my work involves Major League Baseball it isn't uncommon for me to make two trips to different ballparks in the same week. I've been fortunate in some of the games I've attended in the past - David Cone's perfect game, the clincher of the 2001 ALCS, Cal Ripken's last game at Yankee Stadium, the game where Billy Martin decided to use pitcher Rick Rhoden as his designated hitter (he batted 8th, ahead of Rafael Santana, and Rhoden was 0-1 with a sac fly) - but this year I was spoiled.

My first game of the year was working opening day at Citi Field. I got to walk through the field before the gates open, got a picture of the new walls at Citi Field and sent them off to the handful of Mets' fan friends I have. The following week I worked the opener at Fenway - which, from a work standpoint, was a difficult day. It was my third trip to Fenway that year (had two offseason meetings up there). As a life-long Yankee fan, I don't think I've fully digested the fact that my main working relationship in baseball is with the Red Sox. I think their staff thinks I'm a Mets fan. It's still a surreal feeling when I go through the "authorized personnel only" doors at Fenway.

A month later, during a warm early May Saturday afternoon, I took my two-year old daughter to her first game. Being a younger child, she's an observer - she learns by watching - and she's also very outspoken and uses humor to get attention. I got her to sit in a seat for a couple of innings at Fenway before I finally had to take her out to Yawkee Way to play with the kids activities there. On the way home (we left after the game was official) we stopped and got ice cream and got off the T to play at that playground in that station before Newton. Megan still talks about the day and asks to go again - a great feeling for a dad. Later in the month, my wife and both kids and I went to a Sox game (highlighted by Gary Cherone and Nuno Bettencourt singing the national anthem). Such talent those two have. I also took my father-in-law to his first Yankee game - a win over the Orioles.

I attended the Fenway 100th anniversary game (which I blogged about before). Now that a few months have passed, I get chills thinking that Johnny Pesky and Carl Beane passed away during the season, two major parts of that ceremony. Even the Yankees (who never wear retro-uniforms) were in the 1912 road grays. Mariano Rivera got the final outs - fitting that any memorable game is closed by Mo, whether it's a Yankee memory or any memory. The last player to ever where #42 as their regular number. It fits him. And that would be the last time I saw him in person that year.

We started a tradition which I hope continues - my father, brother and I spent father's day at Nationals Park for the interleague series between the Yanks and Nationals. Friday night we were in the luxury seats and on TV much of the game. I gave Nick Swisher and "O-H" and got an "I-O" back, and got to speak with him for a couple minutes during batting practice. I know he had a rough post-season, but I'm a fan for life. What a great guy.

By the time the regular season was over, I had been to nearly a couple dozen games. Saw the Yanks 7 times, 5 times on the road (they were 6-1 when I saw them in the regular season). Just missed seeing Santana's perfect game (was at Citi Field 3 times that week). Watched the Red Sox flounder as teams like the Orioles and A's came into Boston and surprised them.

Maybe the best game I saw was the post-season. Game 3 of the ALDS (little did I know at the time the Yankees would win only one more game after that all season, while losing 5). Raul Ibanez's 2 HR game. The New Yankee Stadium isn't like the old one. The moated fans are quiet and isolated. The upper deck (where I sat) was alive.

Now the season is nearly over. Even though the World Series teams will be clients of my company, I won't need to travel to assist. This was a memorable year. I took many pictures, filled out a couple scorecards, had a Shake Shack custard shake, watched the Phillies put up 16 runs on the Mets and shared games with most of my immediate family and close friends. I watched my Yankee team look great mid-season, lose Rivera, Pettitte and Jeter to injury during the year at different times, and still managed to get to the ALCS. A memorable season with Mike Trout having one of the best rookie seasons ever, Miggy Cabrera winning the Triple Crown and R.A. Dickey bringing some excitement in an otherwise dull season for the Mets. I don't know if I can keep up this kind of schedule for the 2012 season. I always say that. Then it's three months into the offseason and I can't wait to go back again and again and again.